The Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Initiative at Virginia Tech leverages partnerships, innovation, policy, and analysis to ensure every farmer has access to every proven tool to improve productivity.
The 2025 GAP Report, “The TFP Growth Frontier: Plateaus and Progress in Agricultural Productivity Growth,” reveals global and U.S. trends in this important measure of agriculture system efficiency. After decades of strong growth, global agricultural productivity is slowing down, threatening food security, farmer livelihoods, and the resilience of food systems everywhere.
The trend comes as global uncertainty, including an increasingly unpredictable trade environment and cuts to public funding, presents additional challenges. While the U.S. averaged -0.23 percent annual total factor productivity growth during the past decade, China surged ahead at 1.9 percent, backed by twice the R&D funding, threatening the U.S.’s edge in global agriculture.
This year’s report introduces a breakthrough model — the TFP Growth Frontier — to explain why productivity growth is plateauing and identify how to reignite progress. Drawing on global case studies, historical analysis, and empirical evidence, the report defines four technological domains that have shaped productivity trajectories: Extensification, Input Intensification, Efficiency Optimization, and System Integration. Together, these domains form the “frontier” that marks the limits of growth and the pathways to overcoming stagnation.
The GAP Report is supported by investments from the Virginia Tech College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. Supporting Partners provide financial support for the GAP Report and related activities. They offer important perspectives on critical issues facing agriculture in the U.S. and around the world.
Our work is enhanced by contributions from NGO and research partners who share their knowledge and experience in agriculture, conservation, nutrition and the diverse needs of farmers.
