U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth Varies Widely Across States

A recent USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) chart illuminates the striking geographic variation in agricultural productivity growth across the United States from 1960 to 2015. The map reveals four distinct tiers of productivity growth rates, ranging from the highest performers (1.52% to 1.95% annually) concentrated in the Midwest, Northeast, and parts of the West Coast, to the lowest performers (0.23% to 0.53%) primarily in the Southwest. States like Ohio, Indiana, Minnesota, Washington, and California led with robust productivity growth, while Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, and Wyoming experienced significantly slower gains.

These historical state-level differences take on new significance in light of findings from the 2024 GAP Report, which revealed concerning trends in U.S. agricultural productivity. The report documented that while global agricultural productivity grew at 0.74% annually during 2013-2022, U.S. productivity actually contracted by 0.21% per year during the same period.

However, traditional productivity metrics often fail to capture the full agricultural value of Southwestern states, where vast rangeland ecosystems support vital livestock production. As the USDA Southwest Climate Hub emphasizes, sustainable rangelands must balance thriving ecosystem processes with vibrant agricultural production and rural economies. With the Southwestern U.S. experiencing increasingly severe drought conditions, innovative approaches are emerging to enhance rangeland productivity. The Sustainable Southwest Beef Coordinated Agriculture Project is evaluating heat-tolerant heritage cattle breeds like the Raramuri Criollo, alongside precision ranching technologies such as tracking collars and water monitoring sensors—practical solutions that can boost productivity in these unique agricultural systems.

This geographic pattern of productivity growth provides valuable context for understanding the nationwide slowdown highlighted in the GAP Report. With the GAP Initiative emphasizing that agricultural productivity needs to grow at 2% annually until 2050 to sustainably meet global demand, understanding regional success stories becomes increasingly important. While the highest-performing states on this map offer potential case studies for cropland productivity, the innovative rangeland management strategies being developed in the Southwest demonstrate that agricultural productivity encompasses more than just traditional crop metrics. By implementing tailored solutions across all agricultural landscapes—from Midwestern croplands to Southwestern rangelands—the U.S. can work toward its goal of sustainable agricultural productivity growth nationwide.