The TFP Growth Frontier: Plateaus and Progress in Agricultural Productivity Growth
References
AgBio Investor. (2022). Cost and Time Required for the Discovery, Development and Authorisation of a New Plant Biotechnology-Derived Genetic Trait. CropLife International. https://croplife.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/AgbioInvestor-Trait-RD-Branded-Report-Final-20220512.pdf
AgBio Investor. (2024). Time and Cost of New Agrochemical Product Discovery, Development and Registration. CropLife International. https://croplife.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Time-and-Cost-To-Market-CP-2024.pdf
Agnew, J., & Nakelse, T. (2024). Global Agricultural Productivity Report—Powering Productivity: Scaling High Impact Bundles of Proven and Emerging Tools. Thompson, T. (Ed.), College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Virginia Tech. https://hdl.handle.net/10919/121269
Berkowitz, G. (2017, October 3). The Future of GMO Crops | Science of GMOs. https://gmo.uconn.edu/topics/the-future-of-gmo-crops/
Bickell, E. G. (2024). The Agricultural Cooperative Extension System: An Overview (No. R48071; CRS Reports). Congressional Research Service. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48071#:~:text=Between%20FY2017%20and%20FY2024%2C%20federal,agricultural%20extension%20and%20research%20programs
Boccaletti, S., Maranzano, P., & Viegas, M. (2024). Inequality and Concentration in Farmland Production and Size: Regional Analysis for the European Union from 2010 to 2020 (No. arXiv:2409.00111). arXiv.
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2409.00111
Brester, G. W. (2018). There is “Little Doubt” About the Promised Bounty of Genetically Modified Crops. American Enterprise Institute. https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/There-Is-Little-Doubt-About-the-Promised-Bounty-of-Genetically-Modified-Crops.pdf?x85095
CAF (2025). Knowledge That Transforms. Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean. https://red20.caf.com/en/chapter-2-policies-for-productive-development/growth-and-productivity-in-latin-america-an-aggregate-analysis/
Callahan, S. (2025). Land Use, Land Value & Tenure—Farmland Ownership and Tenure. USDA ERS. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/land-use-land-value-tenure/farmland-ownership-and-tenure
Cardarelli, R., & Lusinyan, L. (2015). U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States (No. IMF Working Paper No. WP/15/116). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15116.pdf
Cattaneo, A., Federighi, G., & Vaz, S. (2021). The environmental impact of reducing food loss and waste: A critical assessment. Food Policy, 98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101890
Ceddia, M. G. (2019). The impact of income, land, and wealth inequality on agricultural expansion in Latin America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(7), 2527–2532. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814894116
Cui, Y. (2023). Mechanization’s impact on agricultural total factor productivity. Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská Ekonomika), 69(11), 446–457. https://doi.org/10.17221/291/2023-AGRICECON
Deconinck, K. (2020). Concentration in Seed and Biotech Markets: Extent, Causes, and Impacts. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 12(Volume 12), 129–147. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-102319-100751
Effland, A., Saavoss, M., Capehart, T., McBride, & Boline, A. (2022). Innovations in Seed and Farming Technologies Drive Productivity Gains and Costs on Corn Farms. Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/april/innovations-in-seed-and-farming-technologies-drive-productivity-gains-and-costs-on-corn-farms
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C., Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., … Wisser, D. (2014). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3239–3244. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222474110
FAO. (2022). The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets—The geography of food and agricultural trade: Policy approaches for sustainable development. FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd2144en
FAO. (2024). In Brief to The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024. Blue Transformation in action. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd0690en
FDA. (2024). Science and History of GMOs and Other Food Modification Processes. FDA. https://www.fda.gov/food/agricultural-biotechnology/science-and-history-gmos-and-other-food-modification-processes
Fuglie, K. (2018). R&D Capital, R&D Spillovers, and Productivity Growth in World Agriculture. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 40(3), 421–444. https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppx045
Fuglie, K. (2023). Crop research and development spending tracks sales revenue by major seed companies. Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=107370
Fuglie, K. (2024, January 26). Agricultural Innovation, Productivity, and Sustainable Growth. Canadian Agrifood Policy Conference, Ottawa.
Fuglie, K. (2025). International Agricultural Productivity [Dataset].
Fuglie, K., Jeliffe, J., & Morgan, S. (2021). Slowing Productivity Reduces Growth in Global Agricultural Output. Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2021/december/slowing-productivity-reduces-growth-in-global-agricultural-output
Fuglie, K., Morgan, S., & Jeliffe, J. (2024). Global Changes in Agricultural Production, Productivity, and Resource Use Over Six Decades. Amber Waves. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2024/september/global-changes-in-agricultural-production-productivity-and-resource-use-over-six-decades
GAO. (2024). Precision Agriculture: Benefits and Challenges for Technology Adoption and Use. GAO. https://www.gao.gov/assets/d24105962.pdf
Heisey, P. W., & Fuglie, K. (2018). Agricultural Research Investment and Policy Reform in High-Income Countries (No. ERR-249; ERR 249). USDA Economic Research Service. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.276235
Hendricks, N. P., Smith, A., Villoria, N. B., & Stigler, M. (2023). The effects of agricultural policy on supply and productivity: Evidence from differential changes in distortions. Agricultural Economics, 54(1), 44–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12741
IMARC Group. (2024). Precision Agriculture Market Size & Growth Forecast, 2033. https://www.imarcgroup.com/precision-agriculture-market
Iowa PBS. (2013). The Farm Crisis of the 1980s. http://www.iowapbs.org/iowapathways/mypath/2422/farm-crisis-1980s
Klümper, W., & Qaim, M. (2014). A Meta-Analysis of the Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops. PLOS ONE, 9(11), e111629. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0111629
Knapp, G., & Rubino, M. C. (2016). The Political Economics of Marine Aquaculture in the United States. Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture, 24(3), 213–229. https://doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2015.1121202
Koch, J., Schaldach, R., & Göpel, J. (2019). Can agricultural intensification help to conserve biodiversity? A scenario study for the African continent. Journal of Environmental Management, 247, 29–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.06.015
Kopittke, P. M., Menzies, N. W., Wang, P., McKenna, B. A., & Lombi, E. (2019). Soil and the intensification of agriculture for global food security. Environment International, 132, 105078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105078
Li, X., & Guan, R. (2023). How Does Agricultural Mechanization Service Affect Agricultural Green Transformation in China? International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(2), 1655. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20021655
Liu, J., Wang, M., Yang, L., Rahman, S., & Sriboonchitta, S. (2020). Agricultural Productivity Growth and Its Determinants in South and Southeast Asian Countries. Sustainability, 12(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124981
Lopez, R. A., Laughton, C., Kim, D., & Suh, H. S. (2022). Climate change and productivity of northeastern dairy farms. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 51(2), 203–221. https://doi.org/10.1017/age.2022.2
Lu, F., Meng, J., & Cheng, B. (2024). How does improving agricultural mechanization affect the green development of agriculture? Evidence from China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 472, 143298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143298
McFadden, J. (2023). Precision Agriculture in the Digital Era: Recent Adoption on U.S. Farms. USDA.
McFadden, J., & Lim, K. (2024). Precision agriculture use increases with farm size and varies widely by technology | Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=110550
McFadden, J., Njuki, E., & Griffin, T. (2023). Precision Agriculture in the Digital Era: Recent Adoption on U.S. Farms (No. EIB-248). USDA Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=105893
McGuire, V. L., & Strauch, K. R. (2024). Water-Level and Recoverable Water in Storage Changes, High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2019 and 2017 to 2019 (Nos. 2023–5143; U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report). https://doi.org/ 10.3133/sir20235143
McIntosh, E. (2024). A year after Ontario’s Greenbelt scandal, what’s changed? The Narwhal. https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-greenbelt-scandal-anniversary/
Nakelse, T., Dalton, T. J., Hendricks, N. P., & Hodjo, M. (2018). Are smallholder farmers better or worse off from an increase in the international price of cereals? Food Policy, 79, 213–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.07.006
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2022). Enhancing Coordination and Collaboration Across the Land-Grant System. The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26640
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources, & Committee on Genetically Engineered Crops. (2016). Social and Economic Effects of Genetically Engineered Crops. In Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects. National Academies Press (US). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK424536/
Naylor, R. L., Hardy, R. W., Bureau, D. P., Chiu, A., Elliott, M., Farrell, A. P., Forster, I., Gatlin, D. M., Goldburg, R. J., Hua, K., & Nichols, P. D. (2009). Feeding aquaculture in an era of finite resources. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(36), 15103–15110. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0905235106
Nelson, K. (2025). Agricultural and Food Research and Development Expenditures in the United States [Dataset]. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/agricultural-and-food-research-and-development-expenditures-in-the-united-states
Nelson, K., & Fuglie, K. (2022a). China is largest global funder of agricultural R&D (Charts of Note). USDA Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=104237
Nelson, K., & Fuglie, K. (2022b). Investment in U.S. Public Agricultural Research and Development Has Fallen by a Third Over Past Two Decades, Lags Major Trade Competitors (Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America). USDA Economic Research Service. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.338842
Nguyen, H. Q. (2021). Total Factor Productivity Growth of Vietnamese Enterprises by Sector and Region: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis. Economies, 9(3), 109. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030109
Nguyen, T. L., Hoa, H. T., & Khanh, V. T. V. (2025). Estimating total factor productivity in Vietnam’s agriculture: A non-parametric approach. Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology, 9(6), 626–637.
OECD. (2018). Innovation, Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability in China (OECD Food and Agricultural Reviews). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264085299-en
OECD. (2023). Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2023: Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/b14de474-en
OECD, & FAO. (2022). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/f1b0b29c-en
OECD, & FAO. (2024). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/4c5d2cfb-en
Ortiz-Bobea, A., Ault, T. R., Carrillo, C. M., Chambers, R. G., & Lobell, D. B. (2021). Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth. Nature Climate Change, 11(4), 306–312. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1
Ortiz-Bobea, A., Chambers, R. G., He, Y., & Lobell, D. B. (2025). Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 122(11), e2411010122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411010122
Pardey, P. G., & Alston, J. M. (2020). The Drivers of U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. https://www.kansascityfed.org/Agriculture/documents/7107/the-drivers-of-us-agricultural-productivity-growth.pdf
Pardey, P. G., Chan-Kang, C., Dehmer, S. P., & Beddow, J. M. (2016). Agricultural R&D is on the move. Nature, 537(7620), 301–303. https://doi.org/10.1038/537301a
Pingali, P. L. (2012). Green Revolution: Impacts, limits, and the path ahead. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(31), 12302–12308. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0912953109
Plastina, A., & Townsend, T. (2023). World Spending on Agricultural Research and Development. Agricultural Policy Review, Winter 2023. www.card.iastate.edu/ag_policy_review/article/?a=152
Priyadarshini, S. (2025). India approves first genome-edited rice varieties. Nature India. https://doi.org/10.1038/d44151-025-00078-2
Qaim, M. (2010). The Benefits of Genetically Modified Crops—And the Costs of Inefficient Regulation. Resources for the Future. https://www.resources.org/common-resources/the-benefits-of-genetically-modified-cropsand-the-costs-of-inefficient-regulation/
Rhodes, K. (2016). Reaping the Benefits of the Reaper. Richmond Fed. https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2016/q3-4/economic_history
Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002–1037.
Schimmelpfennig, D. (2016). Precision Agriculture Technologies and Factors Affecting Their Adoption. USDA Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2016/december/precision-agriculture-technologies-and-factors-affecting-their-adoption
Schumpeter, J. A. (1976). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203202050
Sheahan, M., & Barrett, C. B. (2017). Ten striking facts about agricultural input use in Sub-Saharan Africa. Food Policy, 67, 12–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.09.010
Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
Sunge, R., & Ngepah, N. (2020). Agricultural trade liberalization, regional trade agreements and agricultural technical efficiency in Africa. Outlook on Agriculture, 49(1), 66–76. https://doi.org/10.1177/0030727019870551
Teweldemedhin, M. Y., & Van Schalkwyk, H. D. (2010). The impact of trade liberalisation on South African agricultural productivity. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 5(12), 1380–1387. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.95963
Thaler, E. A., Larsen, I. J., & Yu, Q. (2021). The extent of soil loss across the US Corn Belt. Environmental Sciences, 118(8), e1922375118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922375118
United Nations. (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (No. UN DESA/POP2024/TR/No.9). United Nations. https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Summary-of-Results.pdf
USDA. (2023). A General Assessment of the Role of Agriculture and Forestry in U.S. Carbon Markets. USDA. https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USDA-General-Assessment-of-the-Role-of-Agriculture-and-Forestry-in-US-Carbon-Markets.pdf
USDA. (2025). Agricultural Productivity in the United States [Dataset]. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/agricultural-productivity-in-the-united-states
USDA APHIS. (2019). Regulatory Impact Analysis and Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis: Ovement of Certain Genetically Engineered Organisms (7 CFR Part 340) (No. APHIS-2018-0034; RIN 0579-AE47). USDA APHIS. https://downloads.regulations.gov/APHIS-2018-0034-6194/content.pdf
USDA ERS. (2025). International Agricultural Productivity. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity
USDA NASS. (2022). 2022 Census of Agriculture Highlights: Farm Producers. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2024/Census22_HL_FarmProducers_FINAL.pdf
USDA NIFA. (2025). National Institute of Food and Agriculture Knowledge Area [Dataset]. https://tinyurl.com/mnfj9yrt
van Dijk, M., Fuglie, K., Heisey, P. W., & Deng, H. (2025). A global dataset of public agricultural R&D investment: 1960-2022. Scientific Data, 12(1), 1140. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05331-y
Wang, S. L., Heisey, P., Schimmelpfennig, D., & Ball, E. (2015a). Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers (No. ERR-189). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/publications/45387/53417_err189.pdf
Wang, S. L., Heisey, P., Schimmelpfennig, D., & Ball, E. (2015b). U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth: The Past, Challenges, and the Future. USDA Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2015/september/u-s-agricultural-productivity-growth-the-past-challenges-and-the-future
Wang, S. L., Nehring, R., & Mosheim, R. (2018). Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: 1948-2015 (Amber Waves). USDA Economic Research Service. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2018/march/agricultural-productivity-growth-in-the-united-states-1948-2015
Zalles, V., Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V., Stehman, S. V., Tyukavina, A., Pickens, A., Song, X., Adusei, B., Okpa, C., Aguilar, R., John, N., & Chavez, Se. (2019). Near doubling of Brazil’s intensive row crop area since 2000. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(2), 428–435. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810301115
Zhu, J., Xu, H., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Local government debt and firm productivity: Evidence from China. Research in International Business and Finance, 63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101798
Zhu, X.-G., Long, S. P., & Ort, D. R. (2008). What is the maximum efficiency with which photosynthesis can convert solar energy into biomass? Current Opinion in Biotechnology, 19(2), 153–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copbio.2008.02.004
