Food Demand Gap
In 2012, Global Harvest Initiative established a series of regional estimates comparing food demand indexes against projected agricultural output from TFP growth for the period 2000 to 2030. This figure indicates how much of a region’s or country’s domestic food demand can be met through efficient use of agricultural inputs to generate more output, as measured by TFP.
Those regions unable to meet 100 percent of domestic demand through TFP growth will make up the difference in other ways, including putting more land into production, intensifying the use of inputs and extending irrigation. These strategies need to be selected and managed with care to protect the resilience and sustainability of the land, water and human capital resources that are the foundation of food and agriculture systems.
Trade will also play a critical role in filling the food demand gap. However, low-income consumers, particularly in urban areas, may struggle with higher food costs. Increasing productivity growth is the best, most sustainable way to fill their food demand gap.