A new study in Research on World Agricultural Economy, examining Jordan’s agricultural sector from 1990 to 2023, reveals a troubling disconnect between increasing agricultural employment and stagnating productivity growth—a pattern that mirrors global concerns about lagging agricultural productivity growth highlighted in recent GAP Reports.

The research, conducted by Ahmad Al-Majali from Mutah University, found that while agricultural employment in Jordan nearly tripled from 38,200 workers in 1990 to 101,600 in 2023, this expansion hasn’t translated into sustained productivity gains.

The sector experienced three distinct phases:

• 1990s: Declining productivity due to limited investments and reliance on unskilled labor
• 2000-2011: Significant improvement driven by economic growth and modernization efforts
• Post-2011: Renewed slowdown despite government interventions

The Foreign Labor Factor

A particularly striking finding is the sector’s heavy dependence on foreign workers, who comprise 67% of agricultural labor. When the government imposed restrictions on foreign labor permits after 2016—aimed at creating opportunities for local workers—productivity actually declined rather than improved. This suggests that foreign workers brought essential skills and experience that weren’t easily replaced.

Efficiency Challenges

Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the study measured technical efficiency across the period. While efficiency peaked in 2011 with optimal resource utilization, it subsequently declined. By 2015, the sector shifted from increasing to decreasing returns to scale, indicating that simply adding more resources no longer generated proportional output increases.

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis revealed that labor showed the highest elasticity among production factors (0.51), compared to capital (0.27) and land (0.11). This underscores labor’s critical role in driving agricultural output in Jordan.

Connecting to Global Productivity Trends

The situation in Jordan reflects broader challenges in achieving sustainable agricultural productivity growth. The country’s struggle to maintain productivity gains despite increased employment highlights the importance of focusing on efficiency rather than simply expanding inputs—a key principle for sustainable intensification.

The study’s findings about the post-2011 productivity slowdown align with global patterns of declining total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Like many regions, Jordan faces the challenge of producing more with limited natural resources, particularly water, while navigating complex labor market dynamics.

Policy Implications

The research suggests several pathways to reinvigorate productivity growth:

• Technology adoption
  • Investing in mechanization and smart farming technologies to compensate for labor market challenges
• Skills development
  • Creating comprehensive training programs for local agricultural workers to bridge the productivity gap with foreign labor
• Efficient resource use
  • Optimizing the scale of operations rather than pursuing expansion, given the shift to decreasing returns to scale
• Infrastructure investment
  • Developing irrigation systems and agricultural support services to enhance efficiency

Looking Forward

Jordan’s agricultural sector stands at a crossroads. The study demonstrates that achieving sustainable productivity growth requires more than workforce expansion—it demands strategic investments in technology, skills development, and efficient resource management. As the country grapples with water scarcity and changing labor dynamics, the focus must shift from quantity to quality of inputs.

The research underscores a fundamental truth about modern agriculture: productivity growth isn’t just about producing more food—it’s about securing the future of agricultural systems through efficiency gains that benefit farmers, society, and the environment. For Jordan, this means embracing innovation while developing local capacity to ensure long-term agricultural resilience.