Agriculture and food production are of the utmost importance to peace and prosperity. Throughout history, the rise and fall of civilizations has been greatly determined by their food systems’ resilience. The capacity to produce, store, distribute and commercialize food has been and, indeed, continues to be the stepping stone to economic growth, and a source of political clout globally.
The Food Security Crisis in Ukraine
The crisis in Ukraine has abruptly reminded the world that food systems are interdependent and vulnerable to market shocks like the one triggered, in this case, by conflict. The international development sector’s response capacity has been put to the test due to the disruptions of food exports from two breadbasket countries that together account for 34 percent of the wheat traded globally.
Severe supply chain disruptions could be catastrophic for North Africa and the Middle East. First in countries that are already in crisis, like Tunisia and Yemen, but also in Lebanon and Egypt. Even relatively stable countries like Morocco and Turkey could suffer the consequences of scarcity and high food prices. The World Food Program (WFP) warned that acute hunger could grow by 17 percent globally if the conflict in Ukraine continues unabated, and that African countries would be most severely affected.
The war in Ukraine and associated trade sanctions on Russia have had, and are likely to continue to have, significant impacts on global wheat and maize. The food security impacts of the current crisis are likely to reverberate over months, if not years, and to be most deeply felt by vulnerable communities in the Global South. In this challenging environment, the world must urgently invest in agricultural capacity and resilience.
A Blueprint for Food Systems Transformation
Transforming food systems requires shifting the focus of food production from efficiency to resilience, and from competition for resources to balance and inclusion. This transformation must rely on solid, science-informed solutions, policy recommendations and proven methodologies that can help avert the global food security crisis that looms. In the short term, efforts must focus on boosting local food production in both low and high productivity areas to buffer the negative effects of higher energy and commodity prices and of supply chain bottlenecks. At the same time, vulnerable communities and countries should be prepared to substitute wheat flour for flour obtained from other crops like millet or chickpeas.
To increase resilience in the medium term there should be a targeted expansion of agricultural production within agro-ecological boundaries. For example, there is potential for wheat production in Eastern and sub-Saharan Africa, but farmers will need comprehensive technical support to grow wheat profitably and sustainably. In parallel, governments and/or farmer associations should invest in crop monitoring and early warning systems that greatly contribute to mitigate agricultural risks associated with climate change and to known and emerging pests and diseases.
Ultimately, the world needs to invest heavily in research and capacity development for agricultural resilience to combat malnutrition and overcome the recurring threat of food insecurity driven by climate change and conflict. Research and development of more sustainable farming practices and technologies will help farmers adapt agriculture to climate change and cut greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural activities that greatly contribute to global warming. It is also urgent to address the gender and youth disparities in agriculture and rural communities to accelerate the transition to more resilient and sustainable agri-food systems.
There is no time to waste in this decisive decade for the United Nations 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development Goals. The immediate and long-term responses to the unfolding crisis will have a great impact on future generations that will undoubtedly hold their predecessors accountable for the actions of today. Hopefully, by the end of the century, people will look back in awe to the 2020s and commend the decisions made by those who rose to the challenge.