The 2018 Global Agricultural Productivity Index™ (GAP Index™) reveals that for the fifth straight year, global agricultural productivity growth is not accelerating fast enough to sustainably meet the food, feed, fiber and fuel needs of nearly 10 billion people in 2050.
In 2010, GHI calculated that global agricultural productivity (as measured by TFP) must grow by an average rate of 1.75 percent annually to double agricultural output through productivity growth by 2050.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) estimates that since 2010, TFP growth globally has been rising by an average annual rate of only 1.51 percent.
The average annual TFP growth rate in low-income countries is particularly troubling. Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2) calls for doubling productivity for small-scale farmers in the lowest income countries. The current rate of TFP growth in low-income countries is only 0.96 percent, down from a 1.5 percent three years ago.
If this downward trend continues, farmers in low-income, food-deficit countries (where population growth is rapidly rising) will use more land and water to increase their output, straining a natural resource base already threatened by extreme weather and climate change.
Low-income countries will need to import food but lack sufficient income to purchase enough to meet the needs of their citizens. Poor urban households will bear the brunt of higher food prices in these countries, but they will also impact low-income rural populations since they are net food buyers.
Productivity Is Critical to the SDGs
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8) lays out specific targets for the economic growth required to end poverty and hunger; in the least developed countries, this must reach at least 7 percent annual GDP growth. The realization of UN SDG 8 will lead to higher demand for agricultural output in developing countries, where there is presently insufficient agriculture and food production.
In fact, the highest demand growth for many agricultural products is coming from regions with high rates of population growth and low rates of agricultural productivity, such as sub-Saharan Africa.
These regions are characterized by small farms, with little access to productive inputs. As production increases to meet the growing demand, concerns are rising about the environmental impact these low-productivity systems will have on the natural resource base, along with rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Doubling agricultural productivity from 2005 to 2050 is aligned with the SDG 2 target of doubling agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale farmers and food producers. It also considers the additional demand generated by achieving the SDG 8 target for economic growth. And it provides for the need to increase agricultural output while also conserving natural resources and reducing the climate impacts of agricultural production.
Increasing R&D investments is required to meet the SDGs. These investments enable farmers to produce food more sustainably while conserving natural resources. Without these innovations, farmers, particularly in food-deficit countries, will put more fragile land into production to increase output and will experience greater hunger and poverty.
Doubling Agricultural Productivity Is The Right Goal
The previous 10 years have witnessed unprecedented demand for agricultural commodities, driven by income increases and population growth in China and India, as well as demand for biofuels stimulated by high energy prices.
Keep Reading