To appreciate the role of total factor productivity growth in agricultural systems, it is helpful to compare agricultural output and input use over time (Figure 3). Since 1961, gross agricultural output has increased fourfold while input use has slightly more than doubled. The distance between the two lines reflects the output that can be attributed to the e cient use of agricultural inputs, some with a substantial environmental impact: land conversion, fertilizer, and livestock. In other words, TFP growth. Moreover, comparing agricultural input to output use over time demonstrates the essential role of TFP growth in the sustainability of agricultural systems (Fuglie et al., 2012).

Agricultural productivity growth is the primary source of global agricultural output growth since the 1990s (Figure 3). When TFP grows, land expansion can be limited or eliminated, and fewer inputs are needed on each acre of agricultural land. Extension of irrigation, especially in China, supported TFP growth and allowed producers to intensify their crop rotations, producing more crops on the same plot of land.

In contrast to global trends shown in Figure 3, low-income country agricultural output growth (more than 400 percent since 1961) has relied largely on increasing inputs, especially land expansion, arguably the least sustainable way to grow agricultural output. TFP growth in low income countries continues to lag well behind the rest of the world, and suggests that agricultural sustainability and food security will continue to be elusive (Figure 4).

The most recent data show a sharp decline in TFP and output growth (Figure 5). The average annual TFP growth rate declined from 1.99% in 2001–2010 to 1.12% in 2011–2020. The contribution of land expansion (much of this in Sub-Saharan Africa) to output growth more than doubled between the two decades, while the rate of input intensification declined by 17%.

In addition to the significant drop in TFP growth, the USDA Economic Research Service is reporting for the first time that agricultural output grew by less than 2% (average annual growth, 2011–2020).

This raises concerns about the prospects for reducing the recent increases in food insecurity and malnutrition. It is important to note that these data reflect impacts from only the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic, and no influence from the Russia-Ukraine war. In other words, the 2011–2020 TFP data illustrate a worrisome global trend of declining TFP growth. Climate change and other types of resource degradation may be taking a larger toll on productivity as well as a slower pace of change in the development and adoption of improved technology.

At the start of the twentieth century, producers around the world opened up new land for cultivation and grazing to increase their output. Then in the 1960s, the Green Revolution gave millions of farmers access to effective pesticides, fertilizer, and irrigation, sharply increasing output and preventing mass starvation (Figure 5). Subsequently, improved technologies and practices enabled producers to use their land and inputs more efficiently (i.e. TFP increased). By the 1990s, global agricultural productivity growth was the primary driver of global agricultural output growth, and was well above the target 1.73 percent annual growth during 2001–2010. However, as noted above, TFP growth declined sharply during 2011–2020. At the same time, the contribution of land expansion to output growth more than doubled during this period.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is predicting 1.4% annual growth in food demand during 2022–2031, mostly due to population growth. Total agricultural output growth averaged 1.93 percent during 2011– 2020 (Figure 4). According to OECD’s population growth projections (Figure 6), world per capita GDP growth will exceed population growth, meaning that net per capita income should increase worldwide. This trend is predicted to be especially pronounced in India, China, and Southeast Asia. In contrast, population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will be more than twice that of GDP. Thus, increasing TFP growth will be especially critical in this region to meet food demand and maintain an affordable food supply while protecting the natural capital on which agricultural production relies.

Examining TFP growth in key regions provides additional perspectives on productivity trends (Figure 7). Although global TFP growth during 2011–2020 was alarmingly low at 1.12%, TFP growth continues to be robust in South Asia and the Transition Countries (former Soviet Union) at 2.28 percent and 1.89 percent, respectively. In China, TFP growth was under 1 percent in the 1970s, and Transition Countries were experiencing negative TFP growth as recently as the 1990s. Market-driven policy changes have sparked a TFP transformation in these countries. Yet history shows that once these changes are integrated into the agricultural sector, TFP growth will slow down. China is a case in point. China’s TFP growth averaged 2.48 percent from 2001 to 2010, falling to 1.59 percent from 2011–2020. The next challenge for countries is maintaining a steady rate of TFP growth through continued policy improvements and investments in agricultural R&D.

Sub-Saharan Africa is a cautionary tale in this regard. Policy reforms in the 1980s and respectable TFP growth, but with minimal investments in agricultural R&D, the region has been unable to sustain or improve TFP growth. The region is now experiencing negative TFP growth. Countries that have invested in the success of emerging farmers (marketoriented, cultivating  ve to 20 hectares) have made significant strides in TFP growth, including South Asia and Southeast Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa has a small but active population of emerging farmers. They have the most potential for productivity growth but urgently need access to improved technologies and agronomic information, as well as an enabling policy and trade environment for TFP growth.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, underinvestment in agricultural research and development and farmer training throughout most of the continent has left farmers with few options for increasing output (Fuglie and Rada, 2013). With limited access to productivity-enhancing technologies such as mechanization, advanced seeds, fertilizer, and improved livestock breeds and feed, farmers are expanding crop and grazing lands at an alarming rate, with negative impacts on biodiversity.

In South Asia, TFP grew at a robust average annual rate of 2.28 percent during 2011–2020, essentially the same growth rate as during 2000–2010. Input intensification and irrigation extension are contributing significantly to output growth. Extending and improving India’s irrigation systems boosted productivity on already cultivated land. Increased access to mechanization services and improved seed genetics have reduced the need for agricultural labor. Land expansion for agriculture is now near zero.

The rate of TFP growth in North America has slowed from 1.6 percent annual growth during the 1990s and 2000s to a paltry 0.16 percent during 2011–2020. The slowdown coincides with decreased public-sector agricultural research and development investments—the cornerstone of TFP growth. According to the USDA Economic Research Service, in 2019 U.S. public agriculture and food R&D expenditures in constant dollars reached its lowest level since 1970. A renewed commitment to public investment in agricultural innovations, especially in the United States, is crucial to return to robust TFP growth. Furthermore, U.S. agricultural R&D innovations can bene t other countries as well.

Similar to North America, TFP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was robust, growing at more than 2 percent annually during 1991–2010. Precision agriculture, advanced seed technologies, and improved livestock management systems have driven substantial TFP growth in feed grains and livestock production in countries such as Brazil and Chile. However, during 2011– 2020, TFP growth in LAC decreased to less than 1 percent annually, and input intensification became the leading contributor to agricultural output growth.

TFP growth in Europe remains sluggish at about 1 percent annually. Output and TFP growth have been strong in breadbaskets of the former Soviet Union, particularly Russia and Ukraine, far above those of EU countries. However, the current Russia-Ukraine conflict is creating input and food supply and price crises globally, and will undoubtedly reduce TFP